(June 1, 2026) Entering early June, the domestic silica market continued to operate at a high level in May. With the support of raw material costs, the rigid demand for expansion of new energy tires, and the continued increase in overseas exports, the industry showed a differentiated pattern of stable supply and demand for ordinary products, tight demand for high-end highly dispersible silica, and firm prices for fumed silica. The entire industry chain accelerated its transformation towards low carbonization and high performance, and the import substitution process of domestic high-end products continued to accelerate. According to the latest monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information and the China Rubber Association Carbon Black and White Carbon Black Branch, the current domestic general precipitation silica market mainstream quotation remains at 6,050-6,100 yuan/ton, and the average market price in the past three months has stabilized at 6,020 yuan/ton, which is in the high price range for the year; the factory quotation of tire-specific high-dispersion silica is 9,600-10,400 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrophobic vapor phase silica 16,000-27,500 yuan/ton. Due to tight supply of high-end products, quotations have remained stable at high levels for a long time.

The cost rigidity of upstream raw materials has become the core factor underpinning the market. This year, the price of sulfur has risen sharply due to the disturbance of international geopolitical trade. The cumulative increase during the year has exceeded 80%. In May, the domestic sulfur spot quotation reached a maximum of 7,550 yuan/ton, which directly increased the cost of sulfuric acid production. Coupled with the phased maintenance of soda ash equipment and the tightening of regional supply, the spot quotations of light and heavy soda ash remained in the range of 950-1,570 yuan/ton, and the production cost of sodium silicate increased simultaneously. Affected by the increased investment in raw materials, energy, and environmental protection technology improvements, the profits of small and medium-sized general production capacity continue to narrow, and the pace of clearing out backward and inefficient production capacity in the industry is accelerating. According to the industry production capacity plan, the approval of new domestic ordinary precipitated silica production capacity continues to be tightened, with an average annual elimination of 3%-5% of backward production capacity. The new production capacity is concentrated in the high-dispersion silica technical transformation projects of leading companies. The new domestic effective production capacity in 2026 is mainly high-end categories, and the supply of low-end production capacity shrinks year by year, optimizing the industry supply and demand structure.

The demand side has formed a three-dimensional growth logic of traditional rubber base, new energy increment explosion, and foreign trade export efficiency improvement. The tire industry is still the largest downstream consumer market for silica, accounting for more than 81% of the total consumption of rubber-grade silica. The implementation of domestic dual-carbon policies and the implementation of EU tire labeling regulations have forced the penetration rate of green tires to continue to increase. The domestic new energy vehicle market penetration rate will exceed 45% in 2025. The weight of electric vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles of the same level. Tires have strict requirements for low rolling resistance and high wear resistance. The amount of silica added to a bicycle is 15%-20% higher than that of fuel tires. In 2026, the output of tires for new energy vehicles will maintain a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, directly driving the rigid demand for highly dispersible silica to rise steadily. In addition to tires, demand in emerging fields such as silicone rubber, sealants, photovoltaic packaging materials, and lithium resistance flame retardants has risen rapidly, becoming the core source of increased gas phase silica. The order production cycle of ultra-fine gas phase silica for photovoltaics and electronic adhesives generally reaches more than 30 days, and the supply of niche high-end products exceeds demand.

Foreign trade exports continue to grow strongly. In the first quarter of 2026, domestic silica exports totaled 402,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.57%, and the export value was US$211 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.55%. The export destinations were concentrated in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. In Europe, affected by high carbon tariffs and high energy costs, many established chemical companies have shut down their silica production lines. Regional import demand has been rising year by year, opening up incremental space for domestic products to go overseas. The import and export data show a clear structural differentiation: Domestic ordinary silica is exported in large quantities, with an average price of about US$524/ton; the import volume of high-end special silica fell by 7.95% year-on-year, and the average import price surged by 12.05%, confirming that domestic high-end silica is accelerating to replace imported products and gradually entering the supply chain of international tire giants such as Michelin and Pirelli.

In terms of industrial structure, industry concentration continues to rise. Leading companies such as Quecheng, Hesheng Silicon, and Lianke Technology occupy the high-end market by relying on supporting the entire industry chain and self-developed modification technology. The top ten domestic companies have a combined market share of close to 60%. A number of leading companies will intensively implement intelligent production lines and new gas silicon projects in 2026, and the 30,000-ton gas phase silica plant will officially reach production in the second quarter, further filling the gap in domestic high-end production capacity. At the technical level, new processes such as wet modification and in-situ coupling have been put into use. The gap between domestic silica and international giants such as Evonik and Solvay in terms of dispersion and reinforcing properties continues to narrow, and the dependence on imported materials for high-end A-grade tires has declined year by year.

Industry organizations predict that the domestic silica market will not rise or fall significantly from June to July. The high operating levels of sulfur and sulfuric acid at the raw material end support the bottom line of costs. Downstream tire companies have entered the traditional production peak season. Southeast Asian tire factories have continued to expand production to drive export orders. The price of ordinary silica has maintained a narrow range. Highly dispersible and vapor phase silica is supported by the demand for new energy and new materials, and quotations are easy to rise but difficult to fall. In the medium to long term, with the steady increase in global green tire penetration and the expansion of new material application scenarios, high-performance silica will become the main force of industry growth. The industry as a whole will shift from scale expansion to quality upgrading. Low-carbon and functionalization will be the core development lines of the silica industry in the future.

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