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The inventory cycle has switched, and the industry has entered a new stage of dynamic balance between supply and demand

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(April 29, 2026) The latest market monitoring shows that the inventory cycle of the domestic silica industry has ushered in a key switch, the active accumulation stage of enterprises in the early stage has basically ended, the downstream on-demand replenishment rhythm has progressed steadily, the overall supply and demand pattern has gradually shifted from loose to rational balance, and the market operation has become healthier.

In the first quarter of this year, affected by the slowdown in the pace of downstream resumption of work and the weak terminal orders, the inventory of finished products of silica manufacturers continued to accumulate, the storage pressure in some production areas was high, and the market transactions were mainly low-priced, and the overall market was weak. After entering April, the operating rate of downstream rubber, silicone, coatings and other industries has steadily rebounded, and the terminal rigid demand has been released in a concentrated manner.

The steady recovery of the demand side is superimposed on the adjustment of production and control by manufacturers, the overall inventory of the industry continues to be depleted, and the tight regional supply differences gradually emerge. Mainstream enterprises flexibly schedule production, dynamically adjust the starting load according to the order situation, effectively avoid inventory backlog and sharp fluctuations in the market, and further stabilize the market quotation system.

The characteristics of regional market differentiation are obvious. The demand in the industrial concentration areas of East China and South China is strong, the supply of high-end modified silica is tight, and the inventory remains low; The production capacity of general-grade silica in the north is concentrated, the supply is relatively sufficient, the inventory removal speed is slow, and the price fluctuation is smaller.

At the same time, the trade circulation model continues to be optimized, the speculative stocking of intermediaries is reduced, and the proportion of direct signing cooperation in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain has increased, effectively reducing the inventory backlog in the intermediate links, making the transmission of supply and demand more efficient, and the market's ability to resist fluctuations has been significantly enhanced.

Combined with the analysis of short-term market trends, the current two-way adjustment mechanism of silica supply and demand is gradually maturing, superimposed on multiple factors such as raw materials, environmental protection, and orders, and it is difficult for the subsequent market to rise and fall. The focus of the company's operation has shifted from fighting for output and price to controlling inventory, stabilizing channels, and improving quality, and the resilience of industry development has continued to increase.

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